T20 World Cup 2024 Qualification Scenarios: Pakistan, England, New Zealand And Sri Lanka In Danger Zone
We are halfway through the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2024, and the competition is heating up for the Super Eight stage with 20 group stage matches remaining. Four strong teams, Pakistan, England, New Zealand, and Sri Lanka, are in a spot of bother due to upsets, surprises, and bad weather. Three of those teams Pakistan, England and Sri Lanka need other results to go in their favour. Oman is currently the only team out of contention for a Super 8 spot across all four groups. Here’s how things stand after match 20 of the ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2024 between Scotland and Oman on June 9.
Group A
Remaining fixtures
- Pakistan vs Canada
- USA vs India
- USA vs Ireland
- India vs Canada
- Pakistan vs Ireland
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After each team playing two matches each, India and co-hosts USA sit pretty and a win is all they need to qualify for the Super 8, provided Canada drop another point. A three way tie on six points is a faraway scenario possible if India beat USA, USA beat Ireland and Canada beat both India and Pakistan. Back to back defeats has put Pakistan’s campaign on the edge, and the only scenario where they can go through now is if they beat both Ireland and Canada, the winner of India vs USA game win their last match and the loser of that match drop their last fixture. In that case, Pakistan will be tied on four points with one or more teams and NRR will become the adjudicator.
Group B
Remaining fixtures
- Australia vs Namibia
- England vs Oman
- Namibia vs England
- Australia vs Scotland
The only group to have three Associate teams is interestingly poised with Scotland currently at the top of the pile. Australia play Namibia in the next fixture in the group and a win will give the former a pass to the next round while that will mark the end of the road for Namibia’s hopes. The defeat to archrivals Australia has put the defending champions England on a slippery slope. If England lose another point even via a washout, they will miss out if Australia gain at least one point from their remaining fixtures against Scotland or Namibia.
The most likely scenario that can play out in this group is Scotland losing to Australia and England beating both Namibia and Oman, which would mean both England and Scotland will be tied on five points each and it will come down to who beat Namibia and Oman by bigger margins. As of how things stand, Scotland’s NRR is +3.965 runs ahead of England’s which is a margin of almost 110 runs. If Scotland lose to Australia by 50 runs, England will need their combined victory margin against Namibia and Oman to be 59 runs to pip them on NRR (presuming teams batting first score 160 each time). Scotland play Australia in the final game in this group which gives the former an advantage over England on what the exact margins going into their final game.
Group C
Remaining fixtures
- West Indies vs New Zealand
- Afghanistan vs PNG
- New Zealand vs Uganda
- New Zealand vs PNG
- West Indies vs Afghanistan
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Touted as the group of death, it has lived up to the expectations, at least as far as New Zealand are concerned. Afghanistan and co-hosts West Indies are best placed in this group and a win in one of their two remaining matches is most likely to take them through given their extraordinary NRR. Though New Zealand have played only one game, the margin of defeat in that has left them with little room to put another step wrong. The best case scenario for them is to win their three remaining matches and hope Afghanistan get the better of West Indies and then pip the latter on points. If New Zealand win all three matches, West Indies beat Afghanistan and Afghanistan beat PNG, all three sides will be locked in six points each with NRR being the decider.
Group D
Remaining fixtures
- South Africa vs Bangladesh
- Sri Lanka vs Nepal
- Bangladesh vs Netherlands
- South Africa vs Nepal
- Bangladesh vs Nepal
- Sri Lanka vs Netherlands
Group D is the most open group in the competition with all five teams still very much in the reckoning. A win against Bangladesh on Monday (June 10) will most certainly lock South Africa’s spot in Super 8. Sri Lanka currently is worst placed in the group and the best case scenario for them will be to beat both Netherlands and Nepal, South Africa go unbeaten, and Nepal beat Bangladesh. In that case, Sri Lanka will be tied on four points with the winner of Netherlands-Bangladesh contest and hope the NRR takes them through. Another possible scenario that could pan out in this group is if South Africa go undefeated and finish on eight points and three other sides are locked on four points each with either Sri Lanka or Nepal remaining winless. © Cricbuzz