Explained: What margin of victory do Pakistan need to overtake New Zealand on net run rate?
New Zealand’s massive 190-run defeat against South Africa on Wednesday brought Babar Azam-led Pakistan back into contention for a semi-final spot at the World Cup 2023. While India, South Africa, and Australia are almost through to the semis, New Zealand and Pakistan may battle it out for the fourth position.
Everything has gone as per this plan so far 😮 https://t.co/xzFiGZpO78
— Mazher Arshad (@MazherArshad) November 1, 2023
New Zealand and Pakistan have played 7 games each, out of them Kiwis have won 4 and have 8 points while the Men in Green have won 3 and have gained 6 points.
To enter the semi-finals, Pakistan need to win both the remaining games and pray that New Zealand lose their two matches. Pakistan have one match against New Zealand and one against England. Besides Pakistan, New Zealand will square off with Sri Lanka on November 9.
Going by equations, if Pakistan win their two matches, they will have 10 points. In this scenario, the Men in Green would already have defeated the Black Caps. But if New Zealand win against Sri Lanka, they will also have 10 points but they may be through the top four based on run rate, which is currently higher than Pakistan’s.
After Wednesday’s clash, New Zealand’s run rate was +0.484 while Pakistan’s run rate stood at -0.024.
Mazher Arshad, a cricket statistician, said that to beat New Zealand’s net run rate, Pakistan need to win by approximately 83 runs or chase in approximately 35 overs against New Zealand. “But both teams will have one more game after that so there could be a new NRR scenario in the last group match.”
To beat New Zealand's NRR, Pakistan need to win by approximately 83 runs or chase in approximately 35 overs against New Zealand. But both teams will have one more game after that so there could be a new NRR scenario in the last group match.
— Mazher Arshad (@MazherArshad) November 1, 2023
Discussion on permutations and combinations for Pakistan is growing on social media, with some hoping for the Men in Green to be back in the top four for an India vs Pakistan encounter. “India v Pakistan Semi in Kolkata anyone,” tweeted Michael Vaughan, former England captain, soon after the Proteas defeated the Kiwis in Pune.
India v Pakistan Semi in Kolkata anyone .. 😜 #CWC23
— Michael Vaughan (@MichaelVaughan) November 1, 2023
Afghanistan, too, have a chance to enter the semifinal but for that, they have to win 2 of the remaining 3 games. This may look difficult as they have to face South Africa, Australia, and the Netherlands. While the Netherlands may look like underdogs on paper, they pulled off this tournament’s biggest upset when they defeated South Africa.